Clash of Civilizations

I found Huntington’s “Clash of Civilizations” rather depressing. His prediction that the cause of conflicts in the future would be due to “cultural divisions”, and especially between the West and Islam, really is a very pessimistic view. Niall Ferguson has suggested in the current issue of Foreign Affairs in his essay “The Next War of the World”, that many Americans viewed 9/11 in Huntington’s terms just as did many Muslims view the US invasion of Afghanistan, as a modern day Christian crusade. But Ferguson goes on to suggest that is it actually the potential for ethnic conflict within states rather than between civilizations, that is the greatest threat, although he states that conflict in multiethnic societies is not inevitable. He suggests that the situation in Iraq is really a clash within Islam and not one between the West and Islam. His arguments are compelling and he has not failed to notice that “the speed with which responsibility for security in Iraq is being handed over to the predominantly Shiite and Kurdish security forces”, may actually also increase the potential for what he calls “internecine strife”. He concludes that civil wars in the Middle East, aka Lebanon, are not containable and would spill over and that “the ramifications of such a Middle East conflagration would be truly global”.

If you like easy to remember “straps”, then Ferguson says that there are three E’s which explain twentieth century war: Ethnic disintegration. Economic volatility. Empires in decline. Read the article to get the reasons why but his ideas really struck a chord with me.

IMHO I believe that cultural understanding and accommodation is actually increasing amongst moderates within the world. I know that there have been big problems in France (there is also an article about this very subject in this issue of Foreign Affairs), there have been issues within the UK, cartoons, the Papal words, etc. In the US, however, it does seem that the minority ethnic groupings, including Muslims, (although not the illegal Latins, who shouldn’t be there but who run many of the essential services in the local US economies) are actually very well integrated in society. I believe that it is the moderates who are the most potent weapon in the fight against terrorism and not the military. That not to say that the military have no part to play - because it has - it is just that it needs to be utilized in a less destructive and negative way vis a vis the effect of military operations on the views of the moderates.

It's now time for more reading..